In a week where most Americans saw how much they paid or owe the U.S. government, the stock market was able to remain rather optimistic, closing only 2.5% below the 2015 high. Interest rates moved up slightly across the curve while commodities, industrial metals in particular, climbed over 2%. U.S. equity market internals have favored more cyclical sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials during this recovery rally. Crude oil last week touched $45 but is likely to see some pressure this week as the Doha meeting designed to craft production freezes between OPEC and non-OPEC producers failed to produce an agreement – based on Iran’s insistence that they be allowed to ramp up production now that sanctions have been lifted. Ultimately this does not seem to be a significant development as it was highly unlikely that Iran and Libya would agree to production caps and, within OPEC, only Saudi Arabia has the ability to increase production anyway. Also making headlines was Brazil’s lower house voting to impeach President Rousseff, sending the political overhaul to the upper house this coming week.

Notable U.S. economic data this week saw weekly jobless claims (253,000) fall to the lowest level in 43 years while headline and core CPI inflation readings came in as expected at 0.9% and 2.2% respectively. March retail sales was another closely watched indicator coming in on the lower end of expectations, slowing from a respectable 3.7% annual pace in February to only 1.7%. Last week and weekend also saw a lot of data on China’s economy which reported 6.7% growth in the first quarter, one of the lowest levels seen in the last 20 years. China continues to battle structural issues in their economy including the housing market, credit growth, and various reform measures. Per Bank Credit Analyst, significant 2016 announced fiscal initiatives including central government, local government, and special infrastructure spending are estimated at 1.2RMB, 0.62%-1.72% of GDP. However, the need to slow credit growth from the current 11.7% rate to something more manageable represents a material headwind as they attempt to navigate growth looking forward.